How to calculate 'Active paid subscriptions' using subscription event data

As per the display in "App Store Connect > Sales and Trends > Subscriptions > Summary", I'm wanting to understand how to calculate the 'Active paid subscriptions' figure for a particular period using only the subscription event data. This is for further analysis and calculation outside of App Store Connect.

For example, if at the start of April I have 500 active paid subscriptions, then at the end of April I have 550 active paid subscriptions, what are the calculation of Subscription events that would make up this figure?

I'd presume the formula would be:

End of period subscriptions = start of period subscriptions + activations (includes trials) + conversions to standard price + reactivations - refunds - trial only activations - cancellations

However when I compare the above calculation against what is reported by 'Active paid subscriptions' at the start and end of a period in App Store Connect it is not the same.

What is the calculation of events across a period that determines the current 'Active paid subscriptions' figure?

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bentocorp
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Curious if you received an answer here or had any insight! I'm attempting to do the same exercise using similar logic.

End of period active paid subscriptions = start of period active paid subscriptions + new paid subscriptions - churned paid subscriptions

where

  1. new paid subscriptions = trial conversions to paid + direct purchases (standard price or a paid introductory offer) + reactivations into standard price

  2. churned paid subscriptions = cancellations, refunds, entries into billing retry, entries into billing grace period.

My variance against actuals is anywhere from 1 - 10% with this logic, and I am having trouble isolating what part(s) of my equation might be incorrect.

Any guidance here is appreciated!

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alincoln
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